Generalizations and Models in Ecology : Lawlikeness, Invariance, Stability, and Robustness

The question at issue in this dissertation is the epistemic role played by ecological generalizations and models. I investigate and analyze such properties of generalizations as lawlikeness, invariance, and stability, and I ask which of these properties are relevant in the context of scientific explanations. I will claim that there are generalizable and reliable causal explanations in ecology by generalizations, which are invariant and stable. An invariant generalization continues to hold or be valid under a special change called an intervention that changes the value of its variables. Whether a generalization remains invariant during its interventions is the criterion that determines whether it is explanatory. A generalization can be invariant and explanatory regardless of its lawlike status. Stability deals with a generality that has to do with holding of a generalization in possible background conditions. The more stable a generalization, the less dependent it is on background conditions to remain true. Although it is invariance rather than stability of generalizations that furnishes us with explanatory generalizations, there is an important function that stability has in this context of explanations, namely, stability furnishes us with extrapolability and reliability of scientific explanations. I also discuss non-empirical investigations of models that I call robustness and sensitivity analyses. I call sensitivity analyses investigations in which one model is studied with regard to its stability conditions by making changes and variations to the values of the model s parameters. As a general definition of robustness analyses I propose investigations of variations in modeling assumptions of different models of the same phenomenon in which the focus is on whether they produce similar or convergent results or not. Robustness and sensitivity analyses are powerful tools for studying the conditions and assumptions where models break down and they are especially powerful in pointing out reasons as to why they do this. They show which conditions or assumptions the results of models depend on. Key words: ecology, generalizations, invariance, lawlikeness, philosophy of science, robustness, explanation, models, stability

Noise sensitivity medical, psychological and genetic aspects

Noise can be defined as unwanted sound. It may adversely affect the health and well-being of individuals. Noise sensitivity is a personality trait covering attitudes towards noise in general and a predictor of noise annoyance. Noise sensitive individuals are more affected by noise than less sensitive individuals. The determinants and characteristics related to noise sensitivity are rather poorly known. The risk of health effects caused by noise can be hypothesized to be higher for noise sensitive individuals compared to those who are not noise sensitive. A cardiovascular disease may be an example of outcomes. The general aim of the present study was to investigate the association of noise sensitivity with specific somatic and psychological factors, including the genetic component of noise sensitivity, and the association of noise sensitivity with mortality. The study was based on the Finnish Twin Cohort of same-sex twin pairs born before 1958. In 1988 a questionnaire was sent to twin pairs discordant for hypertension. 1495 individuals (688 men, 807 women) aged 31 88 years replied, including 573 twin pairs. 218 of the subjects lived in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area. Self-reported noise sensitivity, lifetime noise exposure and hypertension were obtained from the questionnaire study in 1988 and other somatic and psychological factors from the questionnaire study in 1981 for the same individuals. In addition, noise map information (1988 1992) from the Helsinki Metropolitan Area and mortality follow-up 1989 2003 were used. To evaluate the stability and validity of noise sensitivity, a new questionnaire was sent in 2002 to a sample of the subjects who had replied to the 1988 questionnaire. Of all subjects who had answered the question on noise sensitivity, 38 % were noise sensitive. Noise sensitivity was independent of noise exposure levels indicated in noise maps. Subjects with high noise sensitivity reported more transportation noise exposure than subjects with low noise sensitivity. Noise sensitive subjects reported transportation noise exposure outside the environmental noise map areas almost twice as often as non-sensitive subjects. Noise sensitivity was associated with hypertension, emphysema, use of psychotropic drugs, smoking, stress and hostility, even when lifetime noise exposure was adjusted for. Monozygotic twin pairs were more similar with regards noise sensitivity than dizygotic twin pairs, and quantitative genetic modelling indicated significant familiality. The best fitting genetic model provided an estimate of heritability of 36 %. Follow-up of subjects in the case-control study showed that cardiovascular mortality was significantly increased among noise sensitive women, but not among men. For coronary heart mortality the interaction of noise sensitivity and lifetime noise exposure was statistically significant in women. In conclusion, noise sensitivity has both somatic and psychological components. It does aggregate in families and probably has a genetic component. Noise sensitivity may be a risk factor for cardiovascular mortality in women.

VEGFR-3 and Tie pathways in vascular network formation

The blood and lymphatic vascular systems are essential for life, but they may become harnessed for sinister purposes in pathological conditions. For example, tumors learn to grow a network of blood vessels (angiogenesis), securing a source of oxygen and nutrients for sustained growth. On the other hand, damage to the lymph nodes and the collecting lymphatic vessels may lead to lymphedema, a debilitating condition characterized by peripheral edema and susceptibility to infections. Promoting the growth of new lymphatic vessels (lymphangiogenesis) is an attractive approach to treat lymphedema patients. Angiopoietin-1 (Ang1), a ligand for the endothelial receptor tyrosine kinases Tie1 and Tie2. The Ang1/Tie2 pathway has previously been implicated in promoting endothelial stability and integrity of EC monolayers. The studies presented here elucidate a novel function for Ang1 as a lymphangiogenic factor. Ang1 is known to decrease the permeability of blood vessels, and could thus act as a more global antagonist of plasma leakage and tissue edema by promoting growth of lymphatic vessels and thereby facilitating removal of excess fluid and other plasma components from the interstitium. These findings reinforce the idea that Ang1 may have therapeutic value in conditions of tissue edema. VEGFR-3 is present on all endothelia during development, but in the adult its expression becomes restricted to the lymphatic endothelium. VEGF-C and VEGF-D are ligands for VEGFR-3, and potently promote lymphangiogenesis in adult tissues, with direct and remarkably specific effects on the lymphatic endothelium in adult tissues. The data presented here show that VEGF-C and VEGF-D therapy can restore collecting lymphatic vessels in a novel orthotopic model of breast cancer-related lymphedema. Furthermore, the study introduces a novel approach to improve VEGF-C/VEGF-D therapy by using engineered heparin-binding forms of VEGF-C, which induced the rapid formation of organized lymphatic vessels. Importantly, VEGF-C therapy also greatly improved the survival and integration of lymph node transplants. The combination of lymph node transplantation and VEGF-C therapy provides a basis for future therapy of lymphedema. In adults, VEGFR-3 expression is restricted to the lymphatic endothelium and the fenestrated endothelia of certain endocrine organs. These results show that VEGFR-3 is induced at the onset of angiogenesis in the tip cells that lead the formation of new vessel sprouts, providing a tumor-specific vascular target. VEGFR-3 acts downstream of VEGF/VEGFR-2 signals, but, once induced, can sustain angiogenesis when VEGFR-2 signaling is inhibited. The data presented here implicate VEGFR-3 as a novel regulator of sprouting angiogenesis along with its role in regulating lymphatic vessel growth. Targeting VEGFR-3 may provide added efficacy to currently available anti-angiogenic therapeutics, which typically target the VEGF/VEGFR-2 pathway.

The role of productivity in the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of predator-prey interaction

Productivity is predicted to drive the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of predator-prey interaction through changes in resource allocation between different traits. However, resources are seldom constantly available and thus temporal variation in productivity could have considerable effect on the species' potential to evolve. To study this, three long-term microbial laboratory experiments were established where Serratia marcescens prey bacteria was exposed to predation of protist Tetrahymena thermophila in different prey resource environments. The consequences of prey resource availability for the ecological properties of the predator-prey system, such as trophic dynamics, stability, and virulence, were determined. The evolutionary changes in species traits and prey genetic diversity were measured. The prey defence evolved stronger in high productivity environment. Increased allocation to defence incurred cost in terms of reduced prey resource use ability, which probably constrained prey evolution by increasing the effect of resource competition. However, the magnitude of this trade-off diminished when measured in high resource concentrations. Predation selected for white, non-pigmented, highly defensive prey clones that produced predation resistant biofilm. The biofilm defence was also potentially accompanied with cytotoxicity for predators and could have been traded off with high motility. Evidence for the evolution of predators was also found in one experiment suggesting that co-evolutionary dynamics could affect the evolution and ecology of predator-prey interaction. Temporal variation in resource availability increased variation in predator densities leading to temporally fluctuating selection for prey defences and resource use ability. Temporal variation in resource availability was also able to constrain prey evolution when the allocation to defence incurred high cost. However, when the magnitude of prey trade-off was small and the resource turnover was periodically high, temporal variation facilitated the formation of predator resistant biofilm. The evolution of prey defence constrained the transfer of energy from basal to higher trophic levels, decreasing the strength of top-down regulation on prey community. Predation and temporal variation in productivity decreased the stability of populations and prey traits in general. However, predation-induced destabilization was less pronounced in the high productivity environment where the evolution of prey defence was stronger. In addition, evolution of prey defence weakened the environmental variation induced destabilization of predator population dynamics. Moreover, protozoan predation decreased the S. marcescens virulence in the insect host moth (Parasemia plantaginis) suggesting that species interactions outside the context of host-pathogen relationship could be important indirect drivers for the evolution of pathogenesis. This thesis demonstrates that rapid evolution can affect various ecological properties of predator-prey interaction. The effect of evolution on the ecological dynamics depended on the productivity of the environment, being most evident in the constant environments with high productivity.

Straw Performance Studies and Quality Assurance for the ATLAS Transition Radiation Tracker

The Transition Radiation Tracker (TRT) of the ATLAS experiment at the LHC is part of the Inner Detector. It is designed as a robust and powerful gaseous detector that provides tracking through individual drift-tubes (straws) as well as particle identification via transition radiation (TR) detection. The straw tubes are operated with Xe-CO2-O2 70/27/3, a gas that combines the advantages of efficient TR absorption, a short electron drift time and minimum ageing effects. The modules of the barrel part of the TRT were built in the United States while the end-cap wheels are assembled at two Russian institutes. Acceptance tests of barrel modules and end-cap wheels are performed at CERN before assembly and integration with the Semiconductor Tracker (SCT) and the Pixel Detector. This thesis first describes simulations the TRT straw tube. The argon-based acceptance gas mixture as well as two xenon-based operating gases are examined for its properties. Drift velocities and Townsend coefficients are computed with the help of the program Magboltz and used to study electron drift and multiplication in the straw using the software Garfield. The inclusion of Penning transfers in the avalanche process leads to remarkable agreements with experimental data. A high level of cleanliness in the TRT s acceptance test gas system is indispensable. To monitor gas purity, a small straw tube detector has been constructed and extensively used to study the ageing behaviour of the straw tube in Ar-CO2. A variety of ageing tests are presented and discussed. Acceptance tests for the TRT survey dimensions, wire tension, gas-tightness, high-voltage stability and gas gain uniformity along each individual straw. The thesis gives details on acceptance criteria and measurement methods in the case of the end-cap wheels. Special focus is put on wire tension and straw straightness. The effect of geometrically deformed straws on gas gain and energy resolution is examined in an experimental setup and compared to simulation studies. An overview of the most important results from the end-cap wheels tested up to this point is presented.

Accuracy of absorbed dose in external photon beam radiotherapy : what level is sufficient and how to approach it?

Radiation therapy (RT) plays currently significant role in curative treatments of several cancers. External beam RT is carried out mostly by using megavoltage beams of linear accelerators. Tumor eradication and normal tissue complications correlate to dose absorbed in tissues. Normally this dependence is steep and it is crucial that actual dose within patient accurately correspond to the planned dose. All factors in a RT procedure contain uncertainties requiring strict quality assurance. From hospital physicist´s point of a view, technical quality control (QC), dose calculations and methods for verification of correct treatment location are the most important subjects. Most important factor in technical QC is the verification that radiation production of an accelerator, called output, is within narrow acceptable limits. The output measurements are carried out according to a locally chosen dosimetric QC program defining measurement time interval and action levels. Dose calculation algorithms need to be configured for the accelerators by using measured beam data. The uncertainty of such data sets limits for best achievable calculation accuracy. All these dosimetric measurements require good experience, are workful, take up resources needed for treatments and are prone to several random and systematic sources of errors. Appropriate verification of treatment location is more important in intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) than in conventional RT. This is due to steep dose gradients produced within or close to healthy tissues locating only a few millimetres from the targeted volume. The thesis was concentrated in investigation of the quality of dosimetric measurements, the efficacy of dosimetric QC programs, the verification of measured beam data and the effect of positional errors on the dose received by the major salivary glands in head and neck IMRT. A method was developed for the estimation of the effect of the use of different dosimetric QC programs on the overall uncertainty of dose. Data were provided to facilitate the choice of a sufficient QC program. The method takes into account local output stability and reproducibility of the dosimetric QC measurements. A method based on the model fitting of the results of the QC measurements was proposed for the estimation of both of these factors. The reduction of random measurement errors and optimization of QC procedure were also investigated. A method and suggestions were presented for these purposes. The accuracy of beam data was evaluated in Finnish RT centres. Sufficient accuracy level was estimated for the beam data. A method based on the use of reference beam data was developed for the QC of beam data. Dosimetric and geometric accuracy requirements were evaluated for head and neck IMRT when function of the major salivary glands is intended to be spared. These criteria are based on the dose response obtained for the glands. Random measurement errors could be reduced enabling lowering of action levels and prolongation of measurement time interval from 1 month to even 6 months simultaneously maintaining dose accuracy. The combined effect of the proposed methods, suggestions and criteria was found to facilitate the avoidance of maximal dose errors of up to even about 8 %. In addition, their use may make the strictest recommended overall dose accuracy level of 3 % (1SD) achievable.

Evaluation and modelling of the spatial and temporal variability of particulate matter in urban areas

This thesis contains three subject areas concerning particulate matter in urban area air quality: 1) Analysis of the measured concentrations of particulate matter mass concentrations in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA) in different locations in relation to traffic sources, and at different times of year and day. 2) The evolution of traffic exhaust originated particulate matter number concentrations and sizes in local street scale are studied by a combination of a dispersion model and an aerosol process model. 3) Some situations of high particulate matter concentrations are analysed with regard to their meteorological origins, especially temperature inversion situations, in the HMA and three other European cities. The prediction of the occurrence of meteorological conditions conducive to elevated particulate matter concentrations in the studied cities is examined. The performance of current numerical weather forecasting models in the case of air pollution episode situations is considered. The study of the ambient measurements revealed clear diurnal variation of the PM10 concentrations in the HMA measurement sites, irrespective of the year and the season of the year. The diurnal variation of local vehicular traffic flows seemed to have no substantial correlation with the PM2.5 concentrations, indicating that the PM10 concentrations were originated mainly from local vehicular traffic (direct emissions and suspension), while the PM2.5 concentrations were mostly of regionally and long-range transported origin. The modelling study of traffic exhaust dispersion and transformation showed that the number concentrations of particles originating from street traffic exhaust undergo a substantial change during the first tens of seconds after being emitted from the vehicle tailpipe. The dilution process was shown to dominate total number concentrations. Minimal effect of both condensation and coagulation was seen in the Aitken mode number concentrations. The included air pollution episodes were chosen on the basis of occurrence in either winter or spring, and having at least partly local origin. In the HMA, air pollution episodes were shown to be linked to predominantly stable atmospheric conditions with high atmospheric pressure and low wind speeds in conjunction with relatively low ambient temperatures. For the other European cities studied, the best meteorological predictors for the elevated concentrations of PM10 were shown to be temporal (hourly) evolutions of temperature inversions, stable atmospheric stability and in some cases, wind speed. Concerning the weather prediction during particulate matter related air pollution episodes, the use of the studied models were found to overpredict pollutant dispersion, leading to underprediction of pollutant concentration levels.

USING FLUORESCENT AND NON-FLUORESCENT STEROLS TO STUDY RAFTS AND INTRACELLULAR CHOLESTEROL TRANSPORT IN MAMMALIAN CELLS

Cholesterol is an essential component in the membranes of most eukaryotic cells, in which it mediates many functions including membrane fluidity, permeability and the formation of ordered membrane domains. In this work a fluorescent and a non-fluorescent cholesterol analog were characterized as tools to study cholesterol. Next, these analogs were used to study two specific cell biological processes that involve cholesterol, i.e. the structure and function of ordered membrane domains/rafts and intracellular cholesterol transport. The most common method for studying ordered membrane domains is by disrupting them by cholesterol depletion. Because cholesterol depletion affects many cellular functions besides those mediated by membrane domains, this procedure is highly unspecific. The cellular exchange of cholesterol by desmosterol as a tool to study ordered membrane domains was characterized. It turned out that the ability of desmosterol to form and stabilize membrane domains in vitro was weaker compared to cholesterol. This result was reinforced by atomistic scale simulations that indicated that desmosterol has a lower ordering effect on phospholipid acyl chains. Three procedures were established for exchanging cellular cholesterol by desmosterol. In cells in which desmosterol was the main sterol, insulin signaling was attenuated. The results suggest that this was caused by desmosterol destabilizing membrane rafts. Contrary to its effect on ordered membrane domains it was found that replacing cholesterol by desmosterol does not change cell growth/viability, subcellular sterol distribution, Golgi integrity, secretory pathway, phospholipid composition and membrane fluidity. Together these results suggest that exchanging cellular cholesterol by desmosterol provides a selective tool for perturbing rafts. Next, the importance of cholesterol for the structure and function of caveolae was analyzed by exchanging the cellular cholesterol by desmosterol. The sterol exchange reduced the stability of caveolae as determined by detergent resistance of caveolin-1 and heat resistance of caveolin-1 oligomers. Also the sterol exchange led to aberrations in the caveolar structure; the morphology of caveolae was altered and there was a larger variation in the amount of caveolin-1 molecules per caveola. These results demonstrate that cholesterol is important for caveolar stability and structural homogeneity. In the second part of this work a fluorescent cholesterol analog was characterized as a tool to study cholesterol transport. Tight control of the intracellular cholesterol distribution is essential for many cellular processes. An important mechanism by which cells regulate their membrane cholesterol content is by cholesterol traffic, mostly from the plasma membrane to lipid droplets. The fluorescent sterol probe BODIPY-cholesterol was characterized as a tool to analyze cholesterol transport between the plasma membrane, the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and lipid droplets. The behavior of BODIPY-cholesterol was compared to that of natural sterols, using both biochemical and live-cell microcopy assays. The results show that the transport kinetics of BODIPY-cholesterol between the plasma membrane, the ER and lipid droplets is similar to that of unesterified cholesterol. Next, BODIPY-cholesterol was utilized to analyze the importance of oxysterol binding protein related proteins (ORPs) for cholesterol transport between the plasma membrane, the ER, and lipid droplets in mammalian cells. By overexpressing all human ORPs it turned out that especially ORP1S and ORP2 enhanced sterol transport from the plasma membrane to lipid droplets. Our results suggest that the increased sterol transport takes place between the plasma membrane and ER and not between the ER and lipid droplets. Simultaneous knockdown of ORP1S and ORP2 resulted in a moderate but significant inhibition of sterol traffic from the plasma membrane to ER and lipid droplets, suggesting a physiological role for these ORPs in this process. The two phenylalanines in an acidic tract (FFAT) motif in ORPs, which mediates interaction with vesicle associated membrane protein associated proteins (VAPs) in the ER, was not necessary for mediating sterol transport. However, VAP silencing slowed down sterol transport, most likely by destabilizing ORPs containing a FFAT motif.

European Union and the developing nations' external debt : EU-15's debt policy, 1960–2008

This Master's Thesis defines the debt policy of the current European Union Member States towards the developing nations. Since no official policy for debt exists in the EU, it is defined to include debt practices (loans and debt relief in development cooperation) and debt within the EU development policy framework. This study (1) describes how the issue of external debt appears in the development policy framework, (2) compares EU Member States' given loans and debt relief to grants for the developing nations (1960s to the 2000s), and (3) measures the current orientation in ODA of each EU Member State between grant aid and loan aid using the Grant-Loan Index (GLI). Theoretical aspects include reasons for selecting between loans (Bouchet 1987) and grants (Odedokun 2004, O'Brien and Williams 2007), policy context of the EU (Van Reisen 2007) and the meaning of external debt in the set-up between the North and the South. In terms of history, the events and impact of the colonial period (where loans have originated) are overviewed and compared in light of today's policies. Development assistance statistics are derived from the OECD DAC statistics portal and EU development policy framework documents from the EU portal. Methodologically, the structure of this study is from policy analysis (Barrien 1999, Hill 2008, Berndtson 2008), but it has been modified to fit the needs of studying a non-official policy. EU Member States are divided into three groups by Carbone (2007a), the Big-3, Northern and Southern donors, based on common development assistance characteristics. The Grant-Loan Index is used to compare Carbone's model, which measures quality of aid, to the GLI measuring the structure of aid. Results indicate that EU- 15 countries (active in debt practices) differ in terms of timing, stability and equality of debt practices in the long-term (1960s to the 2000s). In terms of current practices, (2000-2008), it is noted that there lies a disparity between the actual practices and the way in which external debt is represented in the development policy framework, although debt practices form a relevant portion of total ODA practices for many EU-15 Member States, the issue itself plays a minor role in development policy documents. Carbone’s group division applies well to the Grant – Loan Index’s results, indicating that countries with similar development policy behaviour have similarities in debt policy behaviour, with one exception: Greece. On the basis of this study, it is concluded that EU development policy framework content in terms of external debt and debt practices are not congruent. The understanding of this disparity between the policy outline and differences in long-term practices is relevant in both, reaching the UN’s Millennium Development Goals, and in the actual process of developing development aid.

Multiple Perspectives on Networks: Conceptual Development, Application and Integration in an Entrepreneurial Context

Multiple Perspectives on Networks: Conceptual Development, Application and Integration in an Entrepreneurial Context. The purpose of this thesis is to enhance cross-fertilization between three different approaches to network research. The business network approach may contribute in terms of how relationships are created, developed and how tie content changes within ties, not only between them. The social network approach adds to the discussion by offering concepts of structural change on a network level. The network approach in entrepreneurship contributes by emphasizing network content, governance and structure as a way of understanding and capturing networks. This is discussed in the conceptual articles, Articles 2 and 3. The ultimate purpose of this thesis is to develop a theoretical and empirical understanding of network development processes. This is fulfilled by presenting a theoretical framework, which offers multiple views on process as a developmental outcome. The framework implies that change ought to be captured both within and among relationships over time in the firm as well as in the network. Consequently, changes in structure and interaction taking place simultaneously need to be included when doing research on network development. The connection between micro and macro levels is also stressed. Therefore, the entrepreneur or firm level needs to be implemented together with the network level. The surrounding environment impacts firm and network development and vice versa and hence needs to be integrated. Further, it is necessary to view network development not only as a way forward but to include both progression and regression as inevitable parts of the process. Finally, both stability and change should be taken into account as part of network development. Empirical results in Article 1 show support for a positive impact of networks on SME internationalization. Article 4 compares networks of novice, serial and portfolio entrepreneurs but the empirical results show little support for differences in the networks by type of entrepreneur. The results demonstrate that network interaction and structure is not directly impacted by type of entrepreneur involved. It indicates instead that network structure and interaction is more impacted by the development phase of the firm. This in turn is in line with the theoretical implications, stating that the development of the network and the firm impacts each other, as they co-evolve.

Paradox between democracy and security- case study on Pakistan

Pro gradu-tutkielma tutkii demokratian ja turvallisuuden paradoksia Pakistanissa esitellen kuusi tekijää, jotka vaikuttavat kyseiseen paradoksiin. Näitä tekijöitä ovat historiallinen kehitys; eliittihallinto; taloudellinen kehitys; Pakistanin poliittisten tekijöiden demokratian eri määritelmät; opetuksen puuttuminen; ja valtataistelu hallituksen, armeijan, tiedustelupalvelun, oikeusjärjestelmän, poliittisten puolueiden sekä eri heimojen, uskonnollisten ja etnisten ryhmien välillä. Tutkimus tarkastelee myös sitä miten nämä tekijät vaikuttavat demokratian kehitykseen Pakistanissa. Keskeinen argumentti on, että länsimainen demokratia ei esiinny eikä toimi Pakistanissa vallitsevissa oloissa, etenkin historiallisen kehityksen ja ulkoisen turvallisuuden takia. Pro gradu-tutkielma käyttää sekundäärisiä lähteitä, kuten kirjoja, artikkeleita, maaraportteja, kommentaareja sekä omiin kokemuksiin perustuvia havaintoja Pakistanin matkalta 2010-2011. Keskeiset teoriat gradussa ovat Guillermo O’ Donnelin delegaattidemokratia sekä Duncan McCargon eliittihallintoteoria, jotka yhdessä selittävät historiallista kehitystä ja eliittihallinnon dynamiikkaa, mitkä johtavat paradoksiin. Kautta historian armeija on hallinnut Pakistania, ja siviilihallinto on ainoastaan neljä kertaa onnistunut olemaan vallassa, mutta silloinkin siviilihallinto päättyi korruptioväitteisiin tai armeijan vallankaappaukseen. Armeijahallinnoille on luonteenomaista hyvät suhteet USA:n, positiivinen taloudellinen kehitys ja vakaus, kun taas siviilihallinnot ovat epävakaita ja korruptoituneita. Tämä kehitys on paradoksin tausta, joka rakentuu turvallisuuspoliittisen tilanteen pohjalle eli hallitusten ja muiden tekijöiden yritykseen löytää vastapaino Intian uhalle. Tämä on ollut keskeinen huoli kelle tahansa poliittiselle päättäjälle itsenäisyydestä lähtien. Loputon valtataistelu eri poliittisten tekijöiden kesken sekä eliittihallinto pitävät yllä paradoksia, koska eliitit ovat kiinnostuneempia oman valtansa säilyttämisestä kuin kansan tahdon huomioonottamisesta. Koska valtaosa ihmisistä ei ole koulutettuja, he ovat paljolti kiinnostuneita omasta selviytymisestään, ja tämän takia sekä kansa että eliitit suosivat armeijahallintoa, koska se tuo vakautta ja taloudellista kehitystä. Sen vuoksi vallitsevissa oloissa demokratian tulevaisuus Pakistanissa näyttää huonolta, koska liberaalidemokratian vaatimukset eivät täyty puoliksi vapaan oikeussysteemin, puoliksi vapaan lehdistön, valtavan korruption ja monien ihmisoikeusloukkauksien takia unohtamatta armeijan ja tiedustelupalvelun sekaantumista siviilihallintoon.